Coup de grace: Are investors misjudging Marine Le Pen’s chances of victory in France’s presidential election?

Tuesday 21 February 2017 9:30 am French voters have a strong tradition of rallying around the most moderate candidate in the second round – a phenomenon which saw Le Pen’s father, FN’s founder, suffer a thumping defeat to Jacques Chirac in 2002. The European Commission’s Euromonitor surveys also show that the French public do not share her hostility to the euro.Franc-ophileSo why all the worry? Even if there is only an outside chance of Le Pen winning, economists broadly agree she would be a disaster. David Rachline, the FN head of strategy, has talked about swapping euros for new francs on a one-for-one basis, implementing a peg to the single currency, and converting €1.7 trillion of France’s €2.1 trillion of public debt into the new currency. JP Morgan has said that French corporate debt would also have to be redenominated, and could trigger a credit event. But even if avoided, the franc would quickly lose parity with the euro anyway.Jessica Hinds of Capital Economics points out that manufacturing unit labour costs – viewed as a broad measure of price competitiveness – have been much higher in France than the Eurozone as a whole since the single currency was introduced in 1999, so a devaluation in the franc would probably occur. This would be compounded by inflation imported from the Eurozone through more costly euro-denominated goods. Hinds predicts that the new franc would fall 10-15 per cent, even before accounting for a likely fire sale of French assets.Read more: French Revolution – Will Le Pen give Europe its next political shock? Share whatsapp “Fool me twice, shame on me,” goes the idiom. Caught out by shock victories for the Leave and Trump campaigns in 2016, investors are determined not to let political risk get the better of them a third time as the French presidential election approaches this spring.Since the beginning of the year, French government bonds have sold off as fears have intensified that the Eurosceptic, protectionist firebrand Marine Le Pen will find a route to the Elysee Palace. The spread between 10-year French debt and safer German bunds of similar duration yesterday reached its widest since August 2012, as investors have fled to German notes bearing lower credit risk. Some of this is down to the European Central Bank’s decision to increase the proportion of German bunds it buys under QE, but as Le Pen has consolidated her position as the most popular candidate, it is easy to see why markets are scared.Bonne chanceWhen her party, the Front National (FN), launched its manifesto earlier this month, it detailed plans to renegotiate France’s relationship with the EU over six months. The FN wants the bloc to agree to abandon the euro and would redenominate 80 per cent of France’s national debt into francs, a move which the head of sovereign ratings at S&P has said would be tantamount to a default.Read more: Fear of Marine Le Pen pushes French government bond yields higherHowever, a Le Pen win is still considered unlikely. “Financial markets are perhaps exaggerating the risks,” says Sandra Holdsworth, co-manager of the Kames Capital Absolute Return Global Bond fund. Indeed, there are a number of barriers in Le Pen’s way.First, turnout is normally high for French elections, and Le Pen would need an absolute majority in the second round which no polls predict she could achieve. An Opinionway poll published yesterday estimated that Le Pen will win the largest share of the vote (27 per cent) in the first round, but would lose to whomever she faced in the second round – which is likely to be either centre-right Republican nominee Francois Fillon or the centrist Emmanuel Macron. JP Morgan economists put her chances of overall victory at 14 per cent. Coup de grace: Are investors misjudging Marine Le Pen’s chances of victory in France’s presidential election? Will Railton Euro periphery countries would be even more vulnerable to the Eurozone disintegration which could plausibly follow France’s rejection of the single currency. “France is a very solid AA-rated country credit, while Italy is a very weak BBB-rated country,” says Holdsworth. “A change of the magnitude Le Pen is talking about would probably push [Italy] into sub-investment grade, which would have very negative consequences.” However, a Le Pen win is far from Kames Capital’s base case.A close callBut for anyone following the twists and turns of this election campaign, writing Le Pen off entirely looks foolish.Fillon was leading polls until last month, when it emerged that he had used public money to pay large salaries to his family during his tenure in government, with little to show for their work. Yesterday’s Opinionway poll has Fillon taking 20 per cent of the vote in the first round, the same proportion as Macron, leader of the newly founded En Marche party. After calling France’s colonial history “a crime against humanity” last week, Macron too has seen his popularity decrease, and given the lightening speed of his ascent, there are concerns that his base of support is not as established as Le Pen’s, who has broadened out the FN’s social conservatism and anti-immigrant stance to embrace an economic nationalism which appeals in a country with high unemployment. Financial markets are perhaps exaggerating the risks An Opinionway poll yesterday gave Republican nominee Francois Fillon (pictured) a 20 per cent share of the vote in the first round, the same proportion as centrist rival Emmanuel Macron. Le Pen has extended her lead to 27 per cent (Source: Getty)“Both Macron and Fillon promise reform,” says Famke Krumbmüller, partner at OpenCitiz, a political risk consultancy. “Fillon proposes €40bn in favour of companies by decreasing employers’ charges, he wants to simplify the labour code and reduce corporate tax to 25 per cent.”It is likely, however, that neither would reach the second round if the two leftist candidates – the Socialist Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon – agree to unite behind a single candidate. Talks between the two broke down this weekend, but polling suggests that an eventual arrangement would guarantee a President hostile to markets. In an otherwise unpredictable election, Le Pen’s presence, and the strength of her support, seem to be the only constants. whatsapp read more

City of London Corporation to regenerate the waterfront around Custom House

City of London Corporation to regenerate the waterfront around Custom House Share whatsapp Helen Cahill The redevelopment of the area is expected to involve the creation of new public spaces at the City’s boundary, close to the Tower of London.Read more: Australian bank Macquarie has sold its final stake in Thames WaterThe master plan will be building on an ambitious pipeline of cultural and development works that the City of London is embarking upon over the next five years.There will be building works around the current Museum of London, which is being replaced by a £278m concert hall for the London Symphony Orchestra.The City of London Corporation is providing £2.5m in funding to study the business case for the project, but currently hopes to build new offices and hotels in the vicinity of the new classical music venue.Meanwhile, the Museum of London will be moving from the Barbican complex into the disused buildings of Smithfield Market, a redevelopment which is costing £250m. The City of London Corporation is drawing up a master plan for redevelopment of Custom House and the buildings surrounding it in a bid to rejuvenate the City’s waterfront.Custom House was formerly used for the collection of tariffs on goods, and was rebuilt after the Great Fire of 1666 based on designs drawn up by Christopher Wren. Thursday 16 March 2017 7:34 pm whatsapp More From Our Partners Why people are finding dryer sheets in their mailboxesnypost.comPolice Capture Elusive Tiger Poacher After 20 Years of Pursuing the Huntergoodnewsnetwork.orgRussell Wilson, AOC among many voicing support for Naomi Osakacbsnews.comA ProPublica investigation has caused outrage in the U.S. this weekvaluewalk.comBrave 7-Year-old Boy Swims an Hour to Rescue His Dad and Little Sistergoodnewsnetwork.orgKiller drone ‘hunted down a human target’ without being told tonypost.comAstounding Fossil Discovery in California After Man Looks Closelygoodnewsnetwork.orgFlorida woman allegedly crashes children’s birthday party, rapes teennypost.comNative American Tribe Gets Back Sacred Island Taken 160 Years Agogoodnewsnetwork.orgMark Eaton, former NBA All-Star, dead at 64nypost.comConnecticut man dies after crashing Harley into live bearnypost.comInside Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis’ not-so-average farmhouse estatenypost.comBiden received funds from top Russia lobbyist before Nord Stream 2 giveawaynypost.com‘Neighbor from hell’ faces new charges after scaring off home buyersnypost.com980-foot skyscraper sways in China, prompting panic and evacuationsnypost.comSupermodel Anne Vyalitsyna claims income drop, pushes for child supportnypost.comUK teen died on school trip after teachers allegedly refused her pleasnypost.comMatt Gaetz swindled by ‘malicious actors’ in $155K boat sale boondogglenypost.com read more

Corbyn plots to establish publicly owned rival to Facebook

“A BDC could use all of our best minds, the latest technology and our existing public assets not only to deliver information and entertainment to rival Netflix and Amazon but also to harness data for the public good,” he said. “A BDC could develop new technology for online decision making and audience-led commissioning of programmes and even a public social media platform with real privacy and public control over the data that is making Facebook and others so rich.” Julian Jessop, chief economist at the Institute of Economic Affairs told City A.M. Corbyn’s plan for a state-funded social media network was “fixing problems that don’t exist”.“I suspect a government will come up with a service of lower quality, which is more expensive, and less innovative – as that’s what the public sector does,” he said.“This could be a massive sinkhole,” he added. “It’s sometimes years, maybe decades before tech firms make money. Corbyn plots to establish publicly owned rival to Facebook “The best journalism takes on the powerful, in the corporate world as well as government and helps create an informed public,” he said. “This work costs money. We value it but somehow that does not translate into proper funding and legal support.”The Conservatives said an “internet tax” would lead to higher bills for consumers. Another major measure raised by the leader of the opposition was to introduce elections into UK newsrooms, to make journalists elect their editors. “Journalists at the Guardian now elect their editor by indicative ballot and there’s no reason why that precedent shouldn’t be spread more widely,” he explained. Reforms to BBCOn the BBC, Corbyn suggested major reform to make the broadcaster more transparent, such as forcing it to publish equality data about its workforce, including information on the social class of its workers.He also called for the election of some BBC board members by staff and licence fee payers.”With secure funding and empowered staff and audience, the BBC would be on a firm footing to move forward into the 21st century educating, informing and entertaining, and be a vehicle to drive up standards for the rest of the media,” he said.Read more: Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings reach lowest level in a year Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has outlined plans to build a publicly owned social media platform to rival the likes of Facebook.In a speech at the Edinburgh TV Festival, Corbyn set out his idea to create the British Digital Corporation (BDC), a publicly owned entity that would also create entertainment content to rival streaming giants Netflix and Amazon. by Taboolaby TaboolaSponsored LinksSponsored LinksPromoted LinksPromoted LinksYou May LikeMisterStoryWoman Files For Divorce After Seeing This Photo – Can You See Why?MisterStoryZen HeraldEllen Got A Little Too Personal With Blake Shelton, So He Said ThisZen Heraldinvesting.comThe Military Spent $1 Billion On this New Vehicle, And Here’s The First Lookinvesting.commoneycougar.comDiana’s Butler Reveals Why Harry Really Married Meghanmoneycougar.comPost FunDiana’s Butler Explains Why Harry Is With MeghanPost FunMoneyPailShe Was A Star, Now She Works In ScottsdaleMoneyPailTotal PastThis Woman’s Obituary Was So Harsh, Her Son Was Left ReelingTotal PastOne-N-Done | 7-Minute Workout7 Minutes a Day To a Flat Stomach By Using This 1 Easy ExerciseOne-N-Done | 7-Minute WorkoutBetterBe20 Stunning Female AthletesBetterBe Thursday 23 August 2018 10:19 am whatsapp “Facebook and others have the resources to test, trial, and experiment, but a state funded platform would have difficulty doing that.“It’s not impossible but i don’t think it’s a viable option.”Clamping down on tech giantsCorbyn also suggested measures to make tech giants like Facebook, Amazon and Google pay tax to fund British journalism and subsidise the cost of the licence fee. A so-called digital licence fee would charge tech companies and internet service providers to supplement the current licence fee for poorer households, and fund the BBC’s journalism. Corbyn criticised tech firms that “extract huge wealth from our shared digital space”, and said taxes on these businesses could provide a regular income for the BBC and allow it to compete more effectively with corporations like Netflix, Amazon, Facebook and Google.  “This is exactly the thing the market should be left to do. With a limited amount of public money, is this the best thing we can spend it on?”The deputy chief exec of techUK, Antony Walker, described Corbyn’s proposal as “baffling”.“Many of the proposed functions of a BDC already exist so it is hard to see what purpose a state-owned social media site would serve,” he said.Russ Shaw, founder of Tech London Advocates also took issue with the plan, telling City A.M. it could cost in the “hundreds of millions” to implement.He said: “If you don’t have the bells and whistles in the early stages, are you going to be able to attract users to it? whatsapp Josh Mines Share read more

John McDonnell accused of a ‘wilful misunderstanding of business’ after radical conference speech

first_imgHe added: “Renationalisation across the board would lead to lots of sound and fury, solving nothing.”In his speech, McDonnell tried to head off claims that renationalisation of the water industry would be a “return to the past”, saying: “We don’t want to take power away from faceless directors to a Whitehall office, to swap one remote manager for another.”Water UK, the body which represents water companies across the country, claimed Labour’s plan “doesn’t answer any of the big questions” about how the state could effectively run the utility.The body’s chief executive Michael Roberts said: “At the moment there’s a well-run water industry that’s delivering lower bills, increasing investment, and which has cut leakage by a third over the last 20 years.”To replace managers who have decades of experience in running successful water companies, and put much needed investment at risk by handing the industry over to politicians, risks years of chaos in an essential public service.” whatsapp whatsapp   One of the UK’s biggest business groups pleaded with Labour not to see enterprise as “the enemy” after shadow chancellor John McDonnell delivered a radical speech at his party’s conference.  Share Monday 24 September 2018 4:01 pm Jeremy Corbyn led the applause for his shadow chancellor’s speech (Source: Getty)McDonnell also confirmed a previously announced plan to give workers in large companies shares worth up to £500 each year through the creation of “inclusive ownership funds”.This system would see 10 per cent of shares managed by workers, who would then receive a dividend each year. Any excess funds would be paid to the Treasury.Read more: Labour will tell major companies to hand 10 per cent of equity to workersCBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn warned: “Labour must meet business halfway or they will crack the foundations of this country’s prosperity.”center_img Ad Unmute by Taboolaby TaboolaSponsored LinksSponsored LinksPromoted LinksPromoted LinksYou May LikeMisterStoryWoman Files For Divorce After Seeing This Photo – Can You See Why?MisterStoryUndomoneycougar.comDiana’s Butler Reveals Why Harry Really Married Meghanmoneycougar.comUndoBetterBe20 Stunning Female AthletesBetterBeUndoZen HeraldEllen Got A Little Too Personal With Blake Shelton, So He Said ThisZen HeraldUndoRest Wow68 Hollywood Stars Who Look Unrecognizable NowRest WowUndoGive It LoveThese Twins Were Named “Most Beautiful In The World,” Wait Until You See Them TodayGive It LoveUndozenherald.comDolly Finally Took Off Her Wig, Fans Gaspedzenherald.comUndoBridesBlushThis Is Why The Royal Family Kept Quiet About Prince Harry’s Sister BridesBlushUndoTotal PastThis Woman’s Obituary Was So Harsh, Her Son Was Left ReelingTotal PastUndo Tags: Jeremy Corbyn John McDonnell Pensions People Owen Bennett John McDonnell accused of a ‘wilful misunderstanding of business’ after radical conference speech She added: “From renationalisation to dilution of shares, Labour seems determined to impose rules that display a wilful misunderstanding of business.”Their policies would immediately reduce the value of shares owned by ordinary people by over 10 per cent and hobble UK ambitions to compete on a global stage.”That’s a double whammy for people’s pensions and savings.”McDonnell’s speech marked a further departure from the days of New Labour, as the shadow chancellor praised the old Clause IV wording of the party’s constitution, including the phrase: “To secure for the workers by hand or by brain the full fruits of their industry.”Commemorating 100 years since the text was put into the party’s constitution, the shadow chancellor added: “I say the Clause IV principles are as relevant today as they were back then.”Tony Blair successfully fought to have that section changed in 1995, a move which helped propel the party to 13 years in power.Matt Kilcoyne, of the neoliberal think tank the Adam Smith Institute, said: “McDonnell’s full throated love-in for Labour’s old Clause IV risks clawing the UK economy back into the dark days of strife and stagnation.He added: “The Chavez-style commitment to readvertise jobs at utility firms taken back into state control will make the roles political and take people with years of experience and track records of success away from where they’re most needed.“At least he was honest about what all this would be called:Socialism.”Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said: “John McDonnell showed yet again that Labour don’t know how to handle the economy and have no idea what their plans would cost.“Labour’s plan to put politicians in charge of crucial industries means there would be nowhere to turn when things go wrong. They aren’t fit to govern and, just like last time, it’s working people who would pay the price.” The Institute of Directors, which represents companies across the UK, urged McDonnell to abandon “sweeping measures and angry rhetoric” as he used a keynote address in Liverpool to parade his socialist credentials.Among the measures set out by Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man were vows to force large companies to hand over shares to workers and a pledge to fire directors and senior executives of water companies once Labour had renationalised the utility.The CBI accused McDonnell of having a “wilful misunderstanding of business”, while Stephen Martin, director general of the Institute of Directors, said: “We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again – business is not the enemy.“The overwhelming majority of business leaders are as frustrated as anyone about poor wage growth, sluggish productivity, and corporate governance failures. But the answer will not be found in sweeping measures and angry rhetoric.last_img read more

Hedgies and pollsters: Let’s keep a level head

first_imgFriday 28 September 2018 2:23 pm   In the run-up to the EU referendum Labour’s deputy leader Tom Watson railed against hedge funds that were using private polling to inform their trading positions. “I hope the government will put measures in place to prohibit this avaricious plan by financiers to benefit from information that belongs to every voter,” Watson said at the time. whatsapp whatsapp Today it is the turn of a Conservative, Nicky Morgan, to lash out at polling conducted for hedge funds.“There is a perverse commercial incentive to provide misleading information to the public, while providing more accurate – and lucrative – analysis to private clients,” the Treasury Select Committee chair said this morning.Such a conspiracy could take place. However, there are some factors we should bear in mind before getting too carried away.Read more: Weirdly, Impressionists in London doesn’t have enough impressionists in itFirstly, pollsters depend on their reputations and spend years vying to gain credibility for the accuracy of their work. Knowingly publishing inaccurate information would, commercially, be an exceptionally risky strategy. Share More From Our Partners Police Capture Elusive Tiger Poacher After 20 Years of Pursuing the Huntergoodnewsnetwork.orgA ProPublica investigation has caused outrage in the U.S. this weekvaluewalk.comAstounding Fossil Discovery in California After Man Looks Closelygoodnewsnetwork.orgFlorida woman allegedly crashes children’s birthday party, rapes teennypost.comNative American Tribe Gets Back Sacred Island Taken 160 Years Agogoodnewsnetwork.orgBiden received funds from top Russia lobbyist before Nord Stream 2 giveawaynypost.comRussell Wilson, AOC among many voicing support for Naomi Osakacbsnews.comMatt Gaetz swindled by ‘malicious actors’ in $155K boat sale boondogglenypost.comBrave 7-Year-old Boy Swims an Hour to Rescue His Dad and Little Sistergoodnewsnetwork.orgInside Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis’ not-so-average farmhouse estatenypost.comPuffer fish snaps a selfie with lucky divernypost.comKiller drone ‘hunted down a human target’ without being told tonypost.com980-foot skyscraper sways in China, prompting panic and evacuationsnypost.comUK teen died on school trip after teachers allegedly refused her pleasnypost.comWhy people are finding dryer sheets in their mailboxesnypost.comSupermodel Anne Vyalitsyna claims income drop, pushes for child supportnypost.com‘Neighbor from hell’ faces new charges after scaring off home buyersnypost.comI blew off Adam Sandler 22 years ago — and it’s my biggest regretnypost.comcenter_img Hedgies and pollsters: Let’s keep a level head Julian Harris And talking of risk, the practice of second-guessing the market by conducting polling is full of pitfalls. In the case of unprecedented referendums it is very difficult for pollsters to find accurate readings, especially with public opinion liable to sharp swings day by day.Hence most polling firms failed to predict the Leave outcome. They also got it wrong on last year’s hung parliament, and on Trump, and on Cameron’s 2015 majority. Neither is it simple to predict how markets will react to political events. Take the Leave result. Blue chips initially collapsed, only to sharply rebound. Volatility was the only guarantee.Too often in this debate the activities of hedgies are presented as an easy win for a privileged few. So why doesn’t every big bank or asset manager play the game? For the same reason they don’t indulge in other short-term high-risk strategies. For each short-selling hedge celebrating the decline of Carillion, another is nursing their burns from Ocado.The use of private polling, especially on the referendum day itself, quite reasonably warrants further investigation. But we should resist jumping to any conclusions. Tags: Carillion Companylast_img read more

Conservatives will lose next election unless Theresa May chucks Chequers, David Davis tells MPs

first_img whatsapp More From Our Partners Biden received funds from top Russia lobbyist before Nord Stream 2 giveawaynypost.comNative American Tribe Gets Back Sacred Island Taken 160 Years Agogoodnewsnetwork.orgA ProPublica investigation has caused outrage in the U.S. this weekvaluewalk.comBrave 7-Year-old Boy Swims an Hour to Rescue His Dad and Little Sistergoodnewsnetwork.orgRussell Wilson, AOC among many voicing support for Naomi Osakacbsnews.comFlorida woman allegedly crashes children’s birthday party, rapes teennypost.comAstounding Fossil Discovery in California After Man Looks Closelygoodnewsnetwork.orgMatt Gaetz swindled by ‘malicious actors’ in $155K boat sale boondogglenypost.comPolice Capture Elusive Tiger Poacher After 20 Years of Pursuing the Huntergoodnewsnetwork.orgMark Eaton, former NBA All-Star, dead at 64nypost.comI blew off Adam Sandler 22 years ago — and it’s my biggest regretnypost.comConnecticut man dies after crashing Harley into live bearnypost.comKiller drone ‘hunted down a human target’ without being told tonypost.comInside Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis’ not-so-average farmhouse estatenypost.comWhy people are finding dryer sheets in their mailboxesnypost.comUK teen died on school trip after teachers allegedly refused her pleasnypost.com‘Neighbor from hell’ faces new charges after scaring off home buyersnypost.com980-foot skyscraper sways in China, prompting panic and evacuationsnypost.com Share Owen Bennett In an appeal to Brexiteer members of the Cabinet, such as environment secretary Michael Gove and work and pensions secretary Esther McVey, Davis wrote: “The Cabinet will need to decide its next course of action if Chequers – as seems likely – is rejected by the European Union. It is clear that a deal which honours the referendum result, is negotiable with the EU and which would reunite our party is within our grasp, with political will and imagination.”He added: “There is no need for either preposterous threats, in order to justify Chequers, of ‘losing Brexit’ or using Labour votes to get a discredited ‘Chequers minus’ through Parliament.”Davis’ letter comes a week after former foreign secretary Boris Johnson urged May to “chuck Chequers” at a packed-out fringe rally at the Conservative party conference.Read more: Boris Johnson savages Theresa May’s Brexit plan The Conservatives will lose the next election if Theresa May doesn’t change her Brexit policy, ex-cabinet minister David Davis has warned in a stinging letter to Tory MPs. Tuesday 9 October 2018 3:26 pm Conservatives will lose next election unless Theresa May chucks Chequers, David Davis tells MPs Davis wrote: “If we stay on our current trajectory we will go into the next election with the government having delivered none of the benefits of Brexit, with the country reduced to being a rule-taker from Brussels, and having failed to deliver on a number of promises in the manifesto and in the Lancaster House speech.”This will not be a technicality, it will be very obvious to the electorate. The electoral consequences could be dire.”So it is in both the Party’s interest, and crucially the national interest, that we reset our negotiating strategy immediately and deliver a Brexit that meets the demands of the referendum and the interests of the British people.”On the Irish issue, Davis claims Chancellor Philip Hammond is “literally the only person raising the spectre” of a hard border, and lists May, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has having all ruled one out.”There will be no hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. It’s that simple,” Davis wrote. whatsapp Tags: Brexit People Theresa May The former Brexit Secretary has written to his colleagues predicting a “dire” result for the Conservatives unless the Prime Minister ditches her so-called Chequers proposal, which would see the UK follow Brussels’ rules on goods and agri-foods.Davis, who quit the Government in July in protest at the plan, called on May to back a looser arrangement with the EU, dubbed Canada+++, in order to deliver the “benefits of Brexit”.The MP dismissed suggestions that a Canada-style free trade deal would lead to a hard border being created between Northern Ireland and Ireland as a “red herring”.The letter was sent just hours before Davis’ successor as Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, is due to update MPs on the progress of the negotiations with the EU.Read more: At least 40 Tory MPs ‘ready to block’ Theresa May’s Brexit planlast_img read more

Theresa May’s crude policy is the wrong way to manage immigration

first_img whatsapp whatsapp Tags: Brexit Construction industry NHS People Tax Theresa May Vince CableSir Vince Cable is former leader of the Liberal Democrats and former secretary of state for business, innovation and skills The news also provides an opportunity to think, from first principles, what a sensible immigration policy should look like.The present structure is an accretion of – usually – legislative responses to panic about “mass” immigration from outside the EU combined with, so far, freedom of movement within the EU.The government plans to equalise treatment, but the underlying assumption is that numbers need to be cut – especially of “unskilled” workers – defined by a salary threshold.The underlying economics of immigration is that it invariably raises output, but may or may not raise output per head, depending on the productivity of the migrant.The government’s own Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has just acknowledged the contribution to productivity and innovation from an immigrant labour force that is relatively young, flexible, ambitious and mobile. Strikingly, the average EU migrant contributed £2,300 more to the public finances (in 2016/17) than the average Brit. Share Thursday 11 October 2018 8:35 amcenter_img Ad Unmute by Taboolaby TaboolaSponsored LinksSponsored LinksPromoted LinksPromoted LinksYou May LikeMisterStoryWoman Files For Divorce After Seeing This Photo – Can You See Why?MisterStoryUndoOne-N-Done | 7-Minute Workout7 Minutes a Day To a Flat Stomach By Using This 1 Easy ExerciseOne-N-Done | 7-Minute WorkoutUndoBetterBe20 Stunning Female AthletesBetterBeUndoMoneyPailShe Was A Star, Now She Works In ScottsdaleMoneyPailUndozenherald.comDolly Finally Took Off Her Wig, Fans Gaspedzenherald.comUndomoneycougar.comDiana’s Butler Reveals Why Harry Really Married Meghanmoneycougar.comUndoZen HeraldEllen Got A Little Too Personal With Blake Shelton, So He Said ThisZen HeraldUndoPost FunDiana’s Butler Explains Why Harry Is With MeghanPost FunUndoDaily FunnyFemale Athlete Fails You Can’t Look Away FromDaily FunnyUndo If labour markets tighten, the scarcity of jobs will push up pay. This is good news for some of the unskilled workforce, but less good news for the NHS and local councils who will have to fill the vacancies for care workers and nurses. It’s also unwelcome news for the consumers of many services, as well as for skilled workers whose pay differential is eroded.With higher inflationary pressure, interest rates will have to rise, which will have a knock-on effect on highly indebted individuals and companies.No doubt, in time, a new balance would be found in a shrunken economy, but the costs will be considerable. And as the Federation of Small Businesses points out, the burden of adjustment will fall mainly on smaller companies.One key uncertainty is what happens to the net immigration target of 100,000. I and my colleagues in government strongly opposed this target, but it was a key Conservative commitment and has remained. One basic criticism is that it combines totally different groups – workers, dependents, refugees and others, like overseas students, who are not here to stay, and who also bring considerable benefits to the country.The target has rightly attracted ridicule and cynicism, and it has been repeatedly missed. But the mere fact of having a target and missing it has fuelled a good deal of disquiet around migration. Since Theresa May is wedded to it, however, we can expect to see further restrictions over Tier 2 work visas, which are in theory the easiest to control.Current experience of non-EU migration control, sadly, suggests a clunking, bureaucratic system largely unrelated to the economic needs of the country, and which will now be extended to the one major group of workers who are not subject to it.Managing immigration is right and necessary. But an arbitrary target reinforced by a crude salary threshold is entirely the wrong way to go about it. Theresa May’s crude policy is the wrong way to manage immigration The government’s announcement of a new immigration policy post-Brexit has at least the merit of providing a clearer sense of direction – assuming Brexit happens and does so in a reasonably orderly way (which are some big “ifs”). Those who favour tight immigration controls claim that there is an impact on the wages of the low-skilled. However, various economic studies which I commissioned in government failed to show any significant drag on wages; by and large, the relatively unskilled migrants were doing jobs that the indigenous labour force wouldn’t do.But there may be particular occupations and places where there is a negative impact. This is true also of the housing market and demand for finite public services. The unsurprising conclusion of the MAC is that, overall, highly paid migrants have less of a negative impact because they nationally pay more in tax.Let us assume that the main thrust of the new policy is to cut substantially the numbers of low-paid, low-skilled migrants. The two are not necessarily the same: post-research scientists may be disproportionately valuable, but paid relatively little. The construction industry is short of people at almost all skill and salary levels. A long history of under-training and casual work has left the industry short of people, and with an ageing workforce.The government has aspirations for a big increase in house building, and for major infrastructure investment. Without a continuation of the current EU freedom of movement, the ambitions are little more than fantasy.In the current labour market, it is not clear where the British workers are who will perform the low-skilled jobs; we are at record levels of employment, and labour participation rates are high.last_img read more

One Savings Bank and Charter Court announce terms of £1.6bn merger

first_imgThursday 14 March 2019 8:58 am More From Our Partners A ProPublica investigation has caused outrage in the U.S. this weekvaluewalk.comPolice Capture Elusive Tiger Poacher After 20 Years of Pursuing the Huntergoodnewsnetwork.orgRussell Wilson, AOC among many voicing support for Naomi Osakacbsnews.comMatt Gaetz swindled by ‘malicious actors’ in $155K boat sale boondogglenypost.comBrave 7-Year-old Boy Swims an Hour to Rescue His Dad and Little Sistergoodnewsnetwork.org980-foot skyscraper sways in China, prompting panic and evacuationsnypost.comAstounding Fossil Discovery in California After Man Looks Closelygoodnewsnetwork.orgBiden received funds from top Russia lobbyist before Nord Stream 2 giveawaynypost.comNative American Tribe Gets Back Sacred Island Taken 160 Years Agogoodnewsnetwork.orgKiller drone ‘hunted down a human target’ without being told tonypost.comUK teen died on school trip after teachers allegedly refused her pleasnypost.comI blew off Adam Sandler 22 years ago — and it’s my biggest regretnypost.com‘Neighbor from hell’ faces new charges after scaring off home buyersnypost.comInside Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis’ not-so-average farmhouse estatenypost.comFlorida woman allegedly crashes children’s birthday party, rapes teennypost.comSupermodel Anne Vyalitsyna claims income drop, pushes for child supportnypost.comMark Eaton, former NBA All-Star, dead at 64nypost.comWhy people are finding dryer sheets in their mailboxesnypost.com Challenger banks One Savings Bank and Charter Court have confirmed the terms of a £1.6bn merger.Following the completion of the deal One Savings Bank shareholders will own around 55 per cent of the combined company, the firm announced as it posted its full-year results for 2018. “Despite the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, based on application levels seen so far this year, we would expect to deliver mid-teens net loan book growth in 2019 at attractive margins, with NIM marginally lower than 2018, reflecting current asset pricing and the continued transition from back book to front.Read more: Challenger banks confirm £1.6bn merger talks“Whilst we will continue to invest in the business for growth in 2019, as always, we will maintain a strong focus on cost efficiency and control as reflected in our cost to income and management expense ratios.“One Savings Bank is exceptionally well placed to continue to generate attractive returns for our shareholders regardless of potential political scenarios that may take place and we look to the future with confidence.” Jessica Clark Ad Unmute by Taboolaby TaboolaSponsored LinksSponsored LinksPromoted LinksPromoted LinksYou May Likebonvoyaged.comThese Celebs Are Complete Jerks In Real Life.bonvoyaged.comUndoBleacherBreaker4 Sisters Take The Same Picture For 40 Years. Don’t Cry When You See The Last One!BleacherBreakerUndoDefinitionMost Embarrassing Mistakes Ever Made In HistoryDefinitionUndoFilm OracleThey Drained Niagara Falls – Their Gruesome Find Will Keep You Up All NightFilm OracleUndoPost FunA Coast Guard Spotted Movement On A Remote Island, Then Looked CloserPost FunUndoZen HeraldEllen Got A Little Too Personal With Blake Shelton, So He Said ThisZen HeraldUndoPets DetectiveAfter Céline Dion’s Major Weight Loss, She Confirms What We Suspected All AlongPets DetectiveUndoHealthyGem20 Hair Shapes That Make A Man Over 60 Look 40HealthyGemUndoNext RefinanceThey Drained Niagara Falls — They Weren’t Prepared For This Sickening DiscoveryNext RefinanceUndo whatsapp Share One Savings Bank reported increased profits of £183.8m this morning, up from £167.7m in 2017.Net interest income was £287.3m, up from £245.4m the previous year, while net losses on financial instruments shrank from £6.3m to £5.2m.Earnings per share were up from 51.1p to 55.5p in 2018 and the bank announced full-year dividend of 14.6p per share.The company’s loan book grew 23 per cent to £9bn from £7.3bn driven by 15 per cent growth in gross originations and return on equity was 26 per cent.Why it’s interestingThe bank said the strongest lending growth was achieved in its buy-to-let and small to medium business segment, which caters for large professional landlords and accounted for 82 per cent of the total net loan book. It reported an exceptional cost of £9.8m last year as the bank bought out its joint venture partners in its Heritable Development Finance business.What One Savings Bank saidChief executive Andy Golding said: “Following the statement released on 9 March 2019 confirming that Charter Court Financial Services and One Savings Bank were in advanced discussions regarding a possible all-share combination of the two companies, we are today pleased to announce the recommended all-share combination of the two organisations.“As such, we are not able to provide our usual detailed guidance for the financial year ahead.“One Savings Bank entered 2019 with a strong pipeline and our core markets remain highly attractive.“The strength of our lending franchise, driven by specialist underwriting, gives us confidence in continuing to deliver sustainable growth in our net loan book. whatsapp Read more: One Savings Bank and Charter Court shares soar after merger talks confirmedOne Savings Bank chief executive Andy Golding and chief financial officer April Talintyre will retain their roles in the merged group, while Charter Court chief executive Ian Lonergan will be moved over to an integration director role for 18 months.Sebastian Maloney, currently the chief financial officer of Charter Court, will be retained as an advisor for up to a year.Both banks’ directors and activist investor Elliott Management, the largest shareholder in Charter Court, have said they will back the deal.One Savings Bank were advised on the deal by Rothschild & Co and Barclays. Eversheds Sutherland provided legal advice to Charter Court’s management team.The figures Tags: Challenger banks One Savings Bank and Charter Court announce terms of £1.6bn merger last_img read more

Trump will not be asked to address MPs during June state visit

first_img Tags: Trading Archive US President Donald Trump will not be asked to address MPs when he visits the UK in June, according to reports.The government has not requested that the Commons and Lords speakers make time for Trump to make a speech in parliament. August Graham whatsapp Share Read more: China threatens retaliation as Trump rolls out $200bn tariff hike“We’ve not asked. It’s not going to happen,” a Whitehall source told the Huffington Post.A source also told Politics Home that “Donald Trump will definitely not be addressing Parliament while he is here.”Commons speaker John Bercow has expressed his opposition to a Trump address in the past, including during the President’s 2017 visit to the UK.Meanwhile, more than 50 Labour MPs last month signed a petition demanding that Trump’s state visit be cancelled, citing his “misogynism, racism and xenophobia”.center_img More From Our Partners Brave 7-Year-old Boy Swims an Hour to Rescue His Dad and Little Sistergoodnewsnetwork.orgI blew off Adam Sandler 22 years ago — and it’s my biggest regretnypost.comNative American Tribe Gets Back Sacred Island Taken 160 Years Agogoodnewsnetwork.orgMatt Gaetz swindled by ‘malicious actors’ in $155K boat sale boondogglenypost.comPolice Capture Elusive Tiger Poacher After 20 Years of Pursuing the Huntergoodnewsnetwork.orgA ProPublica investigation has caused outrage in the U.S. this weekvaluewalk.comAstounding Fossil Discovery in California After Man Looks Closelygoodnewsnetwork.orgFlorida woman allegedly crashes children’s birthday party, rapes teennypost.comRussell Wilson, AOC among many voicing support for Naomi Osakacbsnews.com The President is set to land in the UK on 3 June and leave after two days, which will include a commemoration of the sacrifices of allied troops during D-Day, 75 years ago.Read more: Huawei CFO hopes to avoid US extradition after Trump’s ‘corrosive’ commentsOthers have stood up for the President’s right to speak to parliament. Lords speaker Lord Fowler has backed calls for a speech, saying he objects to attempts to ban Trump’s appearance.“I find it unacceptable that we should even consider turning our backs on the elected leader of a country to whom everyone in Britain today owes so much,” he said during a speech to the Cambridge Union Society. whatsapp Friday 10 May 2019 12:20 pm Trump will not be asked to address MPs during June state visit last_img read more

Nigel Farage to stand as an MP at next general election

first_img Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage will run for Commons seat at next General Election He said the Brexit Party will have a “very important role to play” if Boris Johnson fails to get Brexit over the line by the looming 31 October deadline. (Getty Images) Farage, who is currently a Member of the European Parliament, told Sky News: “Of course I will stand.” A snap election is expected before the end of the year, with parliament in deadlock over Brexit. whatsapp Alex Daniel Read more: Vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson could happen ‘next week’, says SNP MP He has maintained in recent weeks that if the Tories pursue a no-deal Brexit, he would be happy to make an electoral pact between the two parties. by Taboolaby TaboolaSponsored LinksSponsored LinksPromoted LinksPromoted LinksYou May LikeNoteableyJulia Robert’s Daughter Turns 16 And Looks Just Like Her MomNoteableyFinanceChatterViewers Had To Look Away When This Happened On Live TVFinanceChatterDaily FunnyFemale Athlete Fails You Can’t Look Away FromDaily FunnyPast Factory4 Sisters Take The Same Picture For 40 Years. Don’t Cry When You See The Last One!Past FactoryMisterStoryWoman files for divorce after seeing this photoMisterStoryzenherald.comDolly Finally Took Off Her Wig, Fans Gaspedzenherald.comYourDailyLamaHe Used To Be Handsome In 80s Now It’s Hard To Look At HimYourDailyLamabonvoyaged.comThese Celebs Are Complete Jerks In Real Life.bonvoyaged.comJournalistateTeacher Wears Dress Everyday, Mom Sets Up CamJournalistate This morning, he said if the Conservatives were to join forces with the Brexit Party in any election they would gain a majority of between 60 and 100 seats. Share Tags: Boris Johnson Brexit Nigel Farage Sunday 29 September 2019 1:03 pm Read more: Boris Johnson says he will not resign to avoid asking for Brexit delay Farage refused to say where he would stand for election, but said: “I will lead the charge on behalf of the Brexit Party.”  He told the BBC: “The Conservative party is the oldest, greatest political party in the world, it’s a big, broad church and we don’t do deals with other parties.” But speaking ahead of the Conservative party conference, Johnson ruled out any possibility of working with Farage. Earlier this month, a Tory source said Farage was not a “fit and proper” person, and “should never be allowed anywhere near government”. “Here is a way for Boris to get a big, workable majority. We’re happy to help with that,” he said. whatsapp Nigel Farage has confirmed that he will run to be an MP in any upcoming General Election, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson doubled down on ruling out a political pact between the Tories and the Brexit Party.last_img read more